Photo credit: Quinta Brunson, Ayo Edebiri, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
Emmy predictions are pointing to a challenging night for several Black nominees at the 78th Emmy Awards.
Quinta Brunson, Ayo Edebiri, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Sterling K. Brown, Zendaya and other Black stars are competing in major acting categories.
However, the latest industry predictions favor several other contenders.
While the forecasts could change the conversation, the winners will not be known until the trophies are announced tonight.
Jean Smart leads comedy actress predictions
Quinta Brunson and Ayo Edebiri face a difficult race for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series.
Brunson is nominated for Abbott Elementary. Edebiri is competing for The Bear.
However, Jean Smart remains the leading prediction for Hacks. Forbes predicts Smart to win the award, while AwardsWatch also has her listed as its predicted winner.
Smart could also make Emmy history with another victory for her performance as Deborah Vance.
As a result, Brunson and Edebiri could need an upset to take home the trophy.
Matthew Rhys is favored over Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II is nominated for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series for Wonder Man.
However, Matthew Rhys is the clear favorite in several final Emmy predictions for Widow’s Bay. AwardsWatch and Forbes both project Rhys to win the category.
That puts Abdul-Mateen II in a challenging position heading into the ceremony.
Still, an Emmy upset would quickly change the prediction narrative.
Sterling K. Brown remains an upset threat
Sterling K. Brown is competing for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series for Paradise.
However, Noah Wyle is the predicted winner for The Pitt. AwardsWatch lists Wyle as its predicted winner and notes that The Pitt is expected to dominate several drama categories.
Brown could therefore need to overcome a strong favorite to claim the award.
Nevertheless, his nomination makes him one of the Black stars to watch closely tonight.
Zendaya faces Rhea Seehorn
Zendaya is another Black nominee facing a strong favorite.
The Euphoria star is nominated for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series. However, Rhea Seehorn is widely projected to win for Pluribus. AwardsWatch lists Seehorn as its predicted winner, while The Guardian also favors her in the category.
Therefore, Zendaya enters the race as an underdog.
An upset win would be one of the night’s biggest surprises.
Stephen Root leads supporting actor predictions
The supporting comedy races also present difficult odds for Black nominees.
Tyler James Williams is nominated for Abbott Elementary, while Colman Domingo earned recognition for The Four Seasons.
However, Stephen Root is favored to win Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series for Widow’s Bay. Forbes predicts Root to take the award, while the latest prediction coverage also places him at the top of the race.
Williams and Domingo could therefore need a major upset.
Supporting actress race remains close
Janelle James and Jessica Williams are also competing in a tight supporting actress race.
James earned her nomination for Abbott Elementary. Williams is nominated for Shrinking.
However, the race is mainly being viewed as a battle between Hannah Einbinder of Hacks and Kate O’Flynn of Widow’s Bay. AwardsWatch describes the category as a close contest between the two actresses.
That leaves James and Williams facing another challenging prediction.
Emmy predictions could still be wrong
The latest Emmy predictions give several Black nominees an uphill battle. However, predictions are not the same as results.
Awards shows can produce unexpected victories, especially when multiple strong performances divide the vote.
For now, the industry favorites include Jean Smart, Matthew Rhys, Noah Wyle and Rhea Seehorn in several of the major acting races.
Still, Black stars including Brunson, Edebiri, Abdul-Mateen II, Brown, Zendaya, James, Williams and Domingo have a chance to defy the forecasts.
The biggest question now is simple: Will the Emmy predictions hold, or will tonight deliver a major upset?
Source: Gold Derby, Forbes, AwardsWatch and The Guardian
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